The Stability of Revegetated Ecosystems in Sandy Areas: An Assessment and Prediction Index

The stability and sustainability of revegetated ecosystems is a central topic in ecological research. In this study, long-term monitoring and focused research on vegetation, soil and soil moisture from 2006 to 2012 were used to develop a model for evaluating indices of ecosystem stability using the analytical hierarchy process method. The results demonstrated that rainfall (R), vegetation coverage (C), and surface soil moisture (S) were the three most influential factors among the 14 indicators considered in a revegetated desert area in the Tengger Desert, China. A stability index (SI) was defined as SI = VAR (R) × VAR (C)/VAR (S), and a comparative study was conducted to examine the stability index of the natural vegetation community. The SI was divided into three regimes: SI < 0.006 was stable, 0.006 ≤ SI < 0.015 was semi-stable, and 0.015 ≤ SI was unstable. The stable, semi-stable and unstable periods of revegetated ecosystems in our simulations were 191, 17 and 11 years, respectively, within the total modeling period of 219 years. These results indicated that the revegetated desert ecosystem would be stable in most years during the vegetation succession, and this study presents new ideas for future artificial vegetation management in arid desert regions.